Macroeconomic variables of the United States and their effect on Mexican migration and remittances

Abstract

The objective was to analyse the influence of GDP per capita, the unemployment rate, the United States interest rate, and the exchange rate on migration and remittances of Mexican migrants in the United States. A model of simultaneous equations of the number of migrants and Mexican remittances in the United States with respect to the unemployment rate, the interest rate, the United States' Gross Domestic Product per capita, of the exchange rate, the number of migrants and remittances from Mexicans United States of the previous period. The results were: for the NMt equation, given an increase of 10.0% of the GDPpercaEUt, of the GDPpercaEUt-1, and of the NMt-1, migrants increased by 5.1%, 5.5%, and 4.9% on average respectively. For the remittances function, by increasing the UEUt by 1.0%, the GDP percaEUt, and Ret-1 would increase by 0.3%, by 6.5, and remittances by 3.7% on average, ceteris paribus. In conclusion, for the number of migrants the most significant were the GDP per capita of the United States and the number of migrants from the previous period; for remittances, the Gross Domestic Product per capita, the number of migrants and remittances from the previous period.