Analysis Of Land Use Changes And Carbon Content In Forest Covers In The State Of Mexico With Spatial And Stochastic Methods

Abstract

This paper presents the results of the application of a prospective model that combines the analysis of time series of land use in the State of Mexico, based on the land use information generated by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). We compare two sets of data to obtain a transition matrix that allows a future projection, using stochastic processes, Markov chains and cellular automata, and technical matrix spatiotemporal analysis environment incorporated in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Thus an estimation of carbon content was obtained once applying allometric equations per categories and sampling points taking into account the National Forest Inventory and the development of vegetation, primary or secondary, and vegetative stages. As a result of this study the estimation of carbon reserves for 2010 in the State of Mexico summed up to 0.167556208 and 13,003 Gt in forest and tropical deciduous forests, respectively. We conclude that under the methodologies used, the possible variations of projected land establish a baseline to prospect on the efforts deployed in different evolving scenarios